The Annual Shale Gas Technology & Equipment Event
logo

The 16thBeijing International Shale Gas Technology and Equipment Exhibition

ufi

BEIJING,CHINA

March 26-28,2026

LOCATION :Home> News > Industry News

Aramco sees oil demand falling after 2040, per IPO prospectus

Pubdate:2019-11-12 10:51 Source:liyanping Click:

DUBAI (Bloomberg) - Global oil demand may peak within the next 20 years, according to an assessment included in the prospectus for Saudi Aramco’s initial public offering, suggesting views are slowly changing in the kingdom where officials long dismissed the notion as overblown.

Rather than providing its own assessment, Aramco used a forecast from industry consultant IHS Markit Ltd. that forecasts oil demand to peak around 2035. Under that scenario, demand growth for crude and other oil liquids will be “leveling off” at that time. In an accompanying chart, the Saudi oil giant showed global oil demand lower in 2045 than in 2040.

The prospectus, published late on Saturday, gives unprecedented insight into Aramco’s financial performance, strategy and business risks as the world’s largest oil producer prepares for a share sale in early December. It didn’t include how many shares the government plans to sell or the target price range, however. That’s expected to follow on Nov. 17.

While Aramco didn’t explicitly endorse the forecast, its inclusion in the 658-page document will bring it the attention of investors worldwide. The company’s directors believe that the data provided by the industry consultant are “reliable.”

A second demand scenario in the prospectus assumes a faster transition away from fossil fuels that leads to peak oil demand occurring in the late 2020s.

Aramco acknowledged in the document that climate change policies “may reduce global demand for hydrocarbons and propel a shift to lower carbon-intensity fossil fuels such as gas or alternative energy sources.” Social pressure to reduce pollution and carbon emissions already “has led to a variety of actions that aim to reduce the use of fossil fuels,” it said.

As recently as February, Aramco CEO Amin Nasser dismissed concerns about the rise of alternatives to oil as “not based on logic and facts” and said they arose “mostly in response to pressure and hype.” A year earlier at an industry event in Houston, he said he was “not losing any sleep over ‘peak oil demand’.” Khalid Al-Falih, the country’s petroleum minister until two months ago, was equally dismissive, saying in 2017 that talk about peak demand among energy executives, analysts and activists was “misguided.”

The forecasts also stretch much further into the future than those Aramco provided in the prospectus for its April bond sale. Just over six months ago, the company was only giving investors a view of oil markets up until 2030, while now it’s providing an outlook all the way until 2050. Back in April, Aramco gave no indication that a peak in oil demand was on the horizon.

European majors like Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Total SA have already stated concerns about oil demand peaking. Still, Aramco can take some solace in the fact that as one of the lowest-cost producers, its market share may rise as demand slips. Even in a bearish case for oil, with demand peaking in the late 2020s, Saudi Arabia’s market share could rise from around 15% to 20% by 2050, according to the prospectus.

According to one estimate, the nation’s reserves could sustain output in the coming decades as the company improves field recovery factors. Aramco will be able to continue pumping as much as 11 MMbpd of crude and condensate into the 2030s and possibly go as as high as 13 MMbpd in the 2040s, analysts Sanford C. Bernstein wrote in a report Monday.

Aramco published the prospectus on Saturday as it pushes ahead with what could be the biggest-ever share sale. One thing absent from the document was any suggestion of what valuation Aramco is aiming for. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has said Aramco should be valued at $2 trillion, but bankers who have tried to value the company have suggested it may be worth anywhere from $1.1 trillion to $2.5 trillion. Investors will start bidding to buy shares in the oil company starting on Nov. 17.

主站蜘蛛池模板: 中文字幕久久综合| 亚洲视频456| www.一级毛片| 永久看一二三四线| 国产精品你懂的在线播放| 亚洲一区二区三区91| 青青青国产在线观看免费网站| 手机看片日韩福利| 免费中文字幕在线观看| 57pao成人国产永久免费视频 | 好男人好影视在线观看视频| 亚洲美女视频网| 免费看v片网站| 无码丰满熟妇浪潮一区二区AV| 免费人成网站在线观看欧美| 91成人在线免费观看| 日韩精品久久一区二区三区| 啄木乌欧美一区二区三区 | 国产精品久久久久免费a∨| 久久国产经典视频| 精品99在线观看| 国产精品久久国产精麻豆99网站| 久久精品一区二区三区中文字幕| 美国成人a免费毛片| 国产青草视频在线观看| 久久男人的天堂色偷偷| 精品一二三区久久AAA片| 国产精品偷伦视频免费观看了| 久久99国产精一区二区三区| 特一级黄色毛片| 国产女人的一级毛片视频| 一二三四日本视频中文| 欧美亚洲国产精品久久高清| 国产va在线观看| 91色资源网在线观看| 日本在线视频WWW鲁啊鲁| 亚洲色欲色欲综合网站| 香焦视频在线观看黄| 大炕上各取所需| 久久亚洲精品无码AV红樱桃| 狼色精品人妻在线视频|